Better or Worse in Iraq? Depends on the Poll

Better or Worse in Iraq? Depends on the Poll
By Susan Jones
CNSNews.com Senior Editor
March 19, 2007

(CNSNews.com) - Two new polls offer conflicting views on how things are going for the Iraqi people.

A British opinion poll published on Sunday said most Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein.

The London Sunday Times said the survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis shows that most of them are optimistic, despite the sectarian violence that has erupted in the four years since the U.S.-led invasion began.

But another poll conducted by USA Today, ABC News, the British Broadcasting Corp. and the German TV network ARD said optimism has vanished:

"Pessimism 'growing among Iraqis,'" said the BBC headline; "Iraqis see hope drain away," USA Today reported.

Six in ten Iraqis said their lives are going badly, and only a third expected things to improve in the next year, USA Today reported in its analysis of the poll results. It said the findings are based on in-person interviews with 2, 212 Iraqis.

The poll indicates a "dramatic deterioration" in the security situation and the quality of life in the past 16 months, USA Today said.

USA Today also offered comments from Iraqis who said they worry about everything; but later in the article, the newspaper notes, "Not every Iraqi makes such dire assessments. There are significant differences in outlook within the country and among its groups."

The poll involving USA Today, the BBC, etc., was conducted between Feb. 25 and March 5.

The London Sunday Times poll, conducted by Opinion Research Business, was conducted a bit earlier, from Feb. 10-22.

The more optimistic British poll found that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe President Bush's troop surge, intended to quell sectarian violence, will be successful in disarming warring militias.

And more than half said security will improve after coalition forces withdraw.

The Sunday Times quoted British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett as saying that there is no widespread violence in Iraq's southern provinces.

Along those lines, ABC News noted that "the sharpest deterioration is in Baghdad, where the number of Iraqis who say their own lives are going well has dropped by 51 points."

'Equivocal' on US Withdrawal

According to the ABC News website, the poll indicates that the question of how to proceed in Iraq is "complicated."

"Even as they express discontent with U.S. forces, Iraqis are equivocal about their departure," ABC said.

The poll found that just 35 percent of Iraqis favor an immediate U.S. withdrawal, while about four in 10 - Sunni and Shiite alike - say U.S. forces should remain until security is restored.

Said ABC, "'Leave now' sentiment is up, but not vastly, from 2005," (26 percent then, versus 35 percent now).

The polls coincide with the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war.